Commentary

Selected Commentary and Media

These are PDFs and links to my various commentaries and media appearances on topics ranging from Middle East security to Russian mercenaries. Clicking "read more" will either generate a PDF or connect you to the appropriate website.

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State

These are commentaries on the U.S. war in Iraq and against the Islamic State, on cultural issues in Iraq, and on U.S. strategy. My opinions are derived from nearly 20 years of engagement with Iraqis, including over 100 semi-structured interviews of Iraqi political and military leaders, tribal leaders, insurgents, and former insurgents, as well as over a decade of funded research on Iraq.

Iraq: Build Regular Forces, Not SOF (2022)

Lawfare article arguing for a focus on Iraq's regular Army, less focus on SOF, and on building will to fight

Death of Islamic State Leader is Irrelevant (2022)

Terrorism thrives on disenfranchisement, not charismatic leadership

Why is America Still in Iraq? (2020)

With my esteemed colleague Amb. Jim Dobbins, derived from our study on withdrawal risks, published by Rudaw

On Iran's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops (2020)

Killing Qassim Suleimani gave Iran more political leverage in Iraq, trading tactical gain for strategic loss, LA Times

Stop Calling for Iraq's Partition (2016)

Asking more from arguments to partition Iraq into ethno-sectarian cantonments: provide more detail or drop it, WOTR

Help Iraq with Reconciliation (2016)

United States should support Iraqi reconciliation efforts to reduce violence over time, The National Interest

Welcome Syrian Refugees to Undermine ISIS (2015)

The United States should welcome Syrian refugees in order to undermine the Islamic State, Newsweek

A Longterm Strategy for a Democratic Iraq (2014)

I propose addressing Sunni Arab grievances to help stabilize and strengthen Iraqi democracy, War On The Rocks

Congressional Testimony on Iraq (2014)

Describing the challenges and necessity of addressing root causes, Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Iraq May Not Be as Bad as It Seems (2014)

Don't overreact, take a measured, long-term approach to addressing the Islamic State challenge, CNN.com

Deeply Mixed Results of the Iraq War (2013)

We achieved two limited, qualified successes in Iraq, but at great cost and with little certainty to follow, US News

Smarter Way to Stop Syrian WMD (2013)

Set a long-term, unbiased red-line to strike any actor that uses WMD and follow through on the threat, CNN.com

A War that Abhors a Vacuum (2006)

The United States should not abandon Iraq. Withdrawal will lead to a disaster, The New York Times

Afghanistan

Commentary on the war in Afghanistan and on American strategy

Watching Our Cities Fall (2021)

Remembering Ramadi as I watched Afghan cities fall to the Taliban

Failure of Afghan Will to Fight (2021)

Why did the Afghan security forces fall apart? How can we better understand will to fight?

Stop the Afghanistan Collapse (2021)

President Biden should reverse the withdrawal from Afghanistan

Losing Afghanistan Together
(2021)

Personal commentary on our collective American defeat in Afghanistan, and a call to civic action

Deselecting Defeat in Afghanistan (2021)

Reverse the decision to withdraw, keep a small footprint

End of An Insurgency (2010)

Using our How Insurgencies End analysis to inform Afghanistan strategy, in Foreign Affairs

Russia, Ukraine, Europe, NATO

Commentary on Russian strategy, military capabilities, and competition

Russian Will to Fight in Ukraine (2024)

Russian will to fight can be broken in Ukraine by continuing to degrade its military and economy (War On The Rocks)

Give All Our M1 Tanks and Cold War Gear to Europe, Ukraine (2023)

This is a Lawfare article arguing for disbursement of all our Cold War combat gear to Europe to fend off Russia now and in the future

Russia's Weak Demonstration Army is a Warning to the West (2022)

Russia's weak demonstration army signals worrying trends for Western partner forces

Russia Chem-Bio Attack Risks Ukraine (2022)

Three reasons a Russian chem-bio attack in Ukraine would probably fail or backfire

Russian Failure to Adapt in Ukraine (2022)

Russia's military is failing to adapt in Ukraine. What does this say about their combat power, and ours?

Occupation of Ukraine Will Fail (2022)

Russia has almost no chance of successfully occupying Ukraine

Updated Ukraine Occupation Troop-to-Task (2022)

Updated estimate of needed Russian troops to occupy half of Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Will to Fight Early War (2022)

An early war assessment of the will to fight of both sides in the Ukraine war

Ukraine Occupation: Troop-to-Task (2022)

How many troops would it take for Russia to occupy eastern Ukraine?

Putin Will Regret Ukraine Invasion (2021)

Russia can seize the eastern third of Ukraine, but Putin will rue the aftermath of invasion

Russian Mercenaries are Putin's Weak Link (2021)

Russia relies on mercenaries because it lacks resources and will to use its own troops, RAND.org

Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East (2018)

Beyond Syria, Russia's influence is limited and its options are few, London School of Economics

Culture and Human Behavior

Commentary on cultural training and education, and on understanding human behavior

Will to Fight: U.S. vs. China over Taiwan (2021)

Neither the United States nor China understand their own, or each others will to fight a war over Taiwan. This is a dangerous gap in knowledge.

Will to Fight is Most Important in War (2018)

Examining military and national will to fight will help win wars and reduce costs, WOTR

Save Cultural Training & Education (2018)

What comes after the Human Terrain System (HTS)? Military Review

End the Human Terrain System (2009)

End the HTS program and divert funding to organic military cultural programs, Military Review

Expeditionary FAO (2005)

The Marine Corps should make its foreign area officer program more balanced and combat ready

Marines, Tanks, FD2030, and Ukraine (2022)

The Marine Corps got rid of its tanks. Did Ukraine make them look smart, or too smart for their own good?

Primary Source Research Ukraine (2022)

Argues for more primary source, on-the-ground, structured and funded research of tactical combat in Ukraine and in other wars